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Thursday, September 30, 2010

S&P500 (SPX), SSE n STI - Trader Stock Market Trend

S&P500/SPX (range bound) on low volume
Index 1140.26 to 1148.63, close at 1144.73
Today is quarterly closing day. No bad market news, Fund/Traders push up the stock market index above 1150! Range bound between 1135 to 1155
Short term market trend top 1170 to 1180 (higher volume near 1200)
Year end - Near 1250 and may cross 1300, likely the stock market trend top (indicator)

BDI (Baltic Dry Index)
Traders will be watching closely this sector stock market trend!
RSI crosses 50, shipping related stocks will be bullish.
RSI near 70, likely the stock market trend top for this sector (indicator)

Copper
Copper is Consolidating.
Near 400, likely the stock market trend top (indicator).

STI
Buy on dip on marine related blue chip stocks (Sembawang Marine, Keppel Corp and NOL).
Deception by Big Trader selling (suspect cross selling) in ONE big block this morning.
Stocks in this sector will trend up from mid October onwards.
Short Term top near 3160 to 3170 range.
Near 3250/3300, likely the stock market trend top (indicator)

SSE
Stock Market upward trend affected by government cramping down on property!
Short term market trend will soon re-cross 2700 and above.
Near 3150 (November/December 2010), likely the stock market trend top (indicator) for this year.
Near 3378/3429 (February/March 2011), likely end of primary bear market stock upward trend.

Trader Stock Market Trend Headline - Stocks Set to Close Out Best Quarter - CNBC

Stocks are set to close out the third quarter with the best quarterly performance in a year, but traders are wondering what October will bring after September's record-setting performance and outsized moves in commodities, bonds and the dollar. The stock market drifted slightly lower Wednesday, with the Dow down 22 at 10,835 and the S&P 500 off 2 at 1144. The Dow is now up 10.9 percent for the quarter, and 8.2 percent for the month, its best September since 1939. For the S&P 500, its 9 percent monthly gain is the best since April, 2009 and its quarterly gain of 10.9 percent marks the best quarter in a year.

As stocks lifted off in September, so did commodities. The Thomson Reuters/CRB commodities index had its best September since it began in 1956. It was up 8.2 percent for the month, and 10.5 percent for the quarter. At the same time, bond yields fell, and the dollar weakened, with the dollar index losing 8.4 percent in the quarter and 4.3 percent for the month. But for the quarter, the dollar is higher against the euro.

That trend has been changing as September winds down, and its the dollar's decline that has been calling the tune for markets.

"The euro obviously is the highest it's been since April..I think that the ongoing story is there really isn't anything that can keep it from firming anymore. The dollar is kind of the winner of the ugliest contest and people are clearly content selling it because of the Fed's desire to press ahead with quantitative easing (QE)," said David Gilmore, strategist with Foreign Exchange Analytics.

The euro rose Wednesday even as strikes took place across Europe, Portugal discussed austerity plans, and traders continued to fret over Ireland and Spain's debt ratings. "Portugal's got issues right now. The opposition is not really on board with the new austerity measures. The Irish Prime minister is somewhat at risk. ..You have these very unpopular measures , no growth and you're stuck essentially with German and French monetary policy which isn't working....yet the euro keeps putting in new highs. I think the moral of the story is that QE trumps the debt crisis in Europe and does so decisively.

The other thing is we haven't heard a peep out of U.S. officials. Nobody has dragged out the strong dollar mantra," Gilmore said. The euro rose to $1.3629 Wednesday, an increase of 0.4 percent.

Gilmore said he expects to see the euro reach $1.40 in the next week or two, and the dollar index could decline about 10 percent in the next six months.

"It probably has a couple of quarters in it," Gilmore said of the dollar's drop. "It's got about six months to run before the U.S. economy gets any traction."

With the absence of U.S. data Wednesday, the markets continued to fixate on the idea of quantitative easing. Many Fed watchers believe the Fed would pursue further easing through the purchases of Treasury securities, after its November meeting.

In the bond market, some selling kicked in and some yields were higher on the day. The 10-year was yielding 2.5 percent in late afternoon but had slipped under 2.5 by evening.

Three Fed speakers got attention Wednesday, as they outwardly disagreed on new easing. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren favored a new round of Treasury purchases, but Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said he opposed asset purchases. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said the bond purchases would have little impact.

Yet, the markets have already moved, and traders continue to credit the Fed with driving down rates and the dollar.

"The market is trading a little tired. Yesterday, at the close, we met our target in the 10-years. I turned neutral on the market though I'm generally a long-term bull," said John Briggs, Treasury strategist at RBS.

Briggs said bonds could see buying through Thursday but may sell off once October comes. "I don't think it's going to sell off very hard, but I think the markets are fully priced for QE and the current information here. I think there's the possibility for people to switch into alternative assets" such as mortgages and asset-backed securities, he said.

Stocks also have gained support from the idea of new easing measures. "It could be they've (the Fed) injected some short term stability," said Patrick Kernan, who trades S&P 500 options at the CBOE.

Kernan said the market has been extremely quiet. "People have gotten a bit comfortable with slow drifts. Basically slow drifts (in stocks) cause complacency , and in the options world you see people who have no interest in owning options for protection or speculative purposes," he said.

"It definitely seems like people are comfortable with going along for the ride now....until it hits something in the tracks," said Kernan. He said October options imply low volatility.

"November volatility compared to October is significantly higher, implying that people are just kind of apathetic about the next few weeks going into October," he said.

What to Watch
The stock market continues to struggle with the 1148 level in the S&P, and it is an area to watch.

Art Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, said stocks keep challenging the 1150 level. "I'm sticking with exhaustion," said Cashin when asked why stocks moved lower in late trading. "This is about the fifth try now and they haven't been able to break above it," he said. Cashin said weekly jobless claims, released at 8:30 a.m., will be the last big important data item for the quarter. There is also revisions to second quarter GDP, at 8:30 a.m. and the Chicago Purchasing managers report, expected at 9:45 a.m. There is also a regional Kansas City Fed survey.

Investors will also be watching Congressional testimony from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Mary Schapiro and FDIC Chair Sheila Bair, who appear before the Senate Banking committee at 10 a.m. on a hearing on implementing financial regulatory reform.

Washington Watch
The House of Representatives late Wednesday passed legislation by a wide margin that would seek trade sanctions against China and other nations for manipulating their currency to gain advantages for their exports. The future of the bill is unclear, since it is not expected to have an easy time in the Senate. But traders pointed to it as something that could worry the markets.

Bernanke also does a town hall with economic educators at 2:30 p.m.

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Trader Stock Market Trend - Fed Action Will Be 'Positive for Equities': BlackRock's Bob Doll - CNBC

Stock Market News — Fed Action Will Be 'Positive for Equities': BlackRock's Bob Doll - CNBC

Given some of the data getting less bad, mid-terms coming up and the possibility of more equity-friendly policies, stocks should be able to grind higher, said Bob Doll, chief equity strategist at BlackRock. He shared his market outlook.

“Add to that the Fed’s comments last week and you get a little more pricing and more real growth—that’s more nominal growth—there’s nothing better for stocks than nominal growth,” Bob Doll told CNBC.

He noted that in the past, the Federal Reserve said they would add more “ammunition” (quantitative easing) if things got worse in the US economy. But during the meeting last week, the Fed said it would apply the logic if things don’t get better.

“That means the probability has gone up a bunch and in the near-term, that’s got to be positive for equities,” he said. “You know what it’s done to the dollar and to the price of gold—it’s likely positive for risk assets and the hope has to be that it all translates to better news for the real economy and the nominal economy.”

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Quantitatively easing may likely happen - Stock Traders will be watching for major positive stock market trend reversal!

SP500 (SPX) & STI - Trader Stock Market Trend

SPX on low volume trading 1132.09 to 1150, and close at 1147.70. Trader stock market trend aligns to my posting yesterday. Traders today will be either short SPX down or buy in volume to trade the stock market trend up. Likely consolidate in the 1st half and follow by Higher volume, and traders push up the stock market index above 1150! 1200 will be the likely short term top in early October.

BDI seems to be reversing - traders will be watching closely this sector stock market trend! RSI crosses 50, shipping related stocks will be bullish.
STI buy on dip - Shipbuilding and shipping blue chips! Traders monitoring closely both Sembawang Marine and Keppel Corp (shipbuilding) on Petrobras "fat" projects award soon, and NOL (shipping). Stocks in this sector will trend up from mid October onwards.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

SP500 (SPX) & Stock Market Trend

Asia stock markets consolidate due to profit taking and market trend down in SPX.  SPX will likely dip in the 1st half today (near 1130 level) and consolidates upward. Traders will be watching the stock market trend for sign of reversal to buy on dips! SPX next higher range likely 1170 to 1180. If surge based on higher volume for consecutive days, will break 1200 "Psychological" Resistance before consolidating again!

Copper consolidating for higher high soon!  BDI seems to bottom near 50 MA and reversing...

STI - still the same call on marine (both shipbuilding and shipping) related blue chip stocks - buy on dips!

Nevertheless, caution on any major market reversal event.

Tracking stocks made easy: USA TODAY's Market Trends - Matt Krantz

Q: Is there an easy place to track the weekly change in value of the major U.S. stock market indexes?

A: The spectacle of stock investing can get distracting. Flashing changes of stock prices every millisecond can rattle the calmest investor and even cause long-term investors to get caught up in minute-by-minute market trend changes.

Changing stock prices are a key part of financial markets. But concentrating on those market trend changes may prompt you to see market trends that aren't there or lose perspective on your long-term investment plan.

Watching weekly statistics can help you step out of the daily ups and downs while still keeping an eye on your stock investments. One resource you'll want to check is USA TODAY's weekly Market Trends page. This page, published almost every Monday, tells you how the major stock market indexes and sectors performed the past week, month and three months.

Across the top of the page, you'll see the Dow Jones industrial average, the Standard & Poor's 500 index and Nasdaq composite index displayed with weekly and monthly changes, plus the change over the past three months. You'll also find the same information for the Wilshire 5000 index and USA TODAY Internet 50.

You can see USA TODAY's Stock Market Trends page in the Monday edition of USA TODAY.
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Trader’s Stock Market Trend - Simon Fu

Trader stock market trend (bull or bear) is set by stock market sentiment, fundamental (economic) and technical (TA) analyses.

Trader's stock Market Trend Headlines also affect your market sentiment to invest or sell stock! We invest in stock with a discipline strategy based on Neutral (hold cash), Buy on Dip and Sell on Strength.

Read Sun Tzu's self-discipline, deception and offensive stock market trend strategies below for reference.
http://tradermarkettrend.blogspot.com/

Saturday, September 25, 2010

SP500 (SPX) & Stock Market Trend

SPX Close at 1148.67 (trading from early 1131.69 to 1148.90) high end. Consolidation may kick off for a day or two next week. Trend up higher towards 1200. Traders will hesitate again toward end of next week. I think up trend by fund quarterly book closing (let's see whether "big" shortists can tilt the market trend). Quantitative easing the "wild" card...

BDI trend down to near 50 MA neckline after touching 200 MA. Marine laggard blue chip stocks leg up soon! Buy on dip. BDI daily graph for reference.

Copper will continue to trend up - demand up!

No major negative event, stock market trend will continue "higher high" after each short consolidation towards November/year end.

Friday, September 24, 2010

Trader's Stock Market Trend

Reference to previous post, consolidation last 2 days. SPX opens higher today. Consolidation over and cyclic up (higher high) trend. Next target 1150 to 1170 range for the next one week before pull back again. No major negative event, trend will be up.

Buy on dip at STI (especially marine stocks - blue chip). Laggard will move soon! SSE has been consolidating this week and close today.

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Trader Stock Market Trend Diary

Asia and US Stock market seem to be consolidating (range bound). Moving from neutral to buy on dip at STI (blue chip - marine stocks). SPX unlikely to pull back below 1110 (likely drop 15 to 25 points for a day or two). Mild pull back and market will trend up for another two weeks (cyclic trend). No major negative event, stock market will trend up.

Friday, September 17, 2010

Trader Market Trend Diary

Reference to last posting, SPX 1110 cross over this week and near 1130 (may touch today). This option is obvious! Trend up after consolidating of major reversal (unlikely). Intermediate cyclic up trend more likely.

US Option closing this week range bound. Once consolidatation over early next week, likely market trend up despite higher bull sentiment! Target towards 1200/1250 near year end. End September Option Qtr closing will weigh on trader's option decision (bull or bear) - likely consolidate near month end before trend up in October.

SSE consolidating - cross down 2600 and reverse up above this line! Likely target 2750/2800 next 2 weeks. No major negative market event, Nov/Dec target will be 3000 - 3200 range (or higher). BDI and CRB all showing positive fundamental impact on market trend. Copper consolidates and trend up. Yen finally trend down against USD. Up, consolidate, Higher Up...repeat....market trend!

Will track S&P500(SPX)stock market trend (data) on Friday and next Monday.

Major pull back rule out unless major market trend reversal. Nevertheless, trade with caution. i'm still neutral.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

SPX vs. SSE

Today or tomorrow,
1.  SPX volume (higher up or higher sell) and
2.  Index closing this week is critical (reversal?).
     a.  Cross 1110 and touch 1130 (consolidate and trend up from here or dipping starts).
     b.  Another possibility, dip down below 1080 and dive further towards 1040 (end of the week) or revisit near 1000 low (or below) next week. Reversal for the 4th time (cyclic).
     c.  It may also consolidate here and rally up to 1200/1250
     d. Range bound this week and major pull back (higher probability)/rally (major positive event) next week.

Next week, US Option calendar closing. Month end, quarterly Option Calendar closing.

Negative headlines at EU and US cause major negative sentiment swing. Gold and Silver are signs of the up swing. Another indicator is Option put to call ratio - major swing to Put!

SSE consolidates (range bound after crossing 2700 and pull back below 2700 resistance) - pend economic announcement. Back to 2400/2500 or cross 2800 (upward from here), both SPX and SSE will decide the market trend.

My View - stay neutral.

Wednesday, September 8, 2010

SPX vs SSE

SSE crossed 2700 (refer to 18th August post on 2700 to 2800 closing early September) and pull back on 7th Sep below 2700 the same day. 

Closed my long position (protect my profit) this morning. Move back to Neutral position.

Watch for further consolidation this week and hoping dip next week to buy.

Next week also coincides with US Option closing calendar.

Sunday, September 5, 2010

SPX vs SSE

SPX good closed above 1104.51 (trending up - positive economic data) and SSE 2655.39 (consolidating this week). Can SPX crosses 1130 and sustain with higher volume. May pull back early week and ...

CRB, BDI and copper (consolidated and start to trend up). Good sign for stocks.
I'm long early this week. Still holding. Positive bias as observed.

Saturday, September 4, 2010

S&P 500 Rally this week vs SSE Consolidating!

Market sentiment is swinging to bullish. Need higher volume to push through 1130 next week.

Long early this week on dip.

Positive economic data flashing out these few days - China and US, .... 4Q coming, sales should pick up (a norm)... Q4 P/L from retail sales likely positive growth and will help to boost sales.
BDI and CRB, and Copper keep trending up (watch MA50 and MA200 cross over - daily/weekly). RSI >50 bullish.

S&P 500 (NYSE) may pull back early next week but... It's a Mind game and testing of your Emotions!
Personally, I think positive bias and watching 1130 to cross, and move higher. Hope Friday closing near 1100.

Will there be a 4th time repeat of reversal back to 1040 or lower after near 1130? Unlikely but again, to trap sh... if it ever happens (mind subconsciously programmed with the repeat cycle... earn thrice but squeeze one big one) ...

Have a nice weekend.