Stock Market Trend Follows 2007 Top?

Ride on the waves (up and down) after consolidation till 2011! 2007 history - where stock market continually trend up like nobody business and year 2008 (future year 2012) major stock market trend reversal! We're neutral and monitoring...

Comex Copper Market Trend Consolidation

Copper daily chart consolidation and support at MA50, 359. Is this a stock market trader buying opportunity align with SPX (likely a pull back in stock market to 1160/1150), let's monitor.

Marc Faber - A Correction Is Overdue, But Don`t Expect A Bear Market

"A correction is overdue, but I would not think that a bear market is around the corner. The correction will be a buying opportunity and then we will have a boom in stocks and in commodities like we had between the end of 1999 and March 2000 when markets went up very strongly."  Source : Bloomberg.com

Comex Copper Chart Technical Trend

Comex Copper charts (hourly, daily and weekly) - RSI near overbought (>70%)
http://www.oilngold.com/data/charts/comex-copper-charts-200808191151/

Will likely cross 4.00 and higher after consolidation.

The world seems on course to another crisis in 2012

QE: The Numberless Oblivion... If you print a trillion, I'll print a trillion – and other instances of behavior leading the world toward high inflation and political instability ...by Andy Xie

Ride on the waves (up and down) after consolidation till 2011! 2007 history - where stock market continually trend up like nobody business and year 2008 (future year 2012) major stock market trend reversal!

SGX Takeovers Australia's ASX

SGX acquisition of ASX will drive STI stock market and add life to Asia's stock market trend! Nasdaq OMX will gain from ADR listing at SGX and vice versa... Next merger in the pipeline - KLSE /Asean (negotiating but fruit not bear yet)... anything is possible now!

SGX by 2011 world fastest trading platform... edging platform for equity volume growth

Global M&As will continue to drive stock markets up.

Asia P/L starting from Japan this week will drive stock markets up

3rd November, Fed QE2 announcement will drive stock markets up if no reversal of Fed policy.

Technical/Economy Fundamental improvement will drive stock markets up.

China stable grow, ever growing mid-class consumers and demand, and mass "public" housing project to stabiles property market will drive stock market trend up at Asia or/and EU/.

New generation of smart phones, tablets, electronics (semiconductor)... will drive Technology equities up!

Private and Listed companies flush with cash starts to invest and hire... will drive stock market trend up.

Change in stock market working hours at Asia, starting from Singapore, and follow by competitors from Japan, Hong Kong... Asia stock markets will be more robust and liquid...

Asia financial sectors - awaiting big merger and acquisition to drive the financial equities higher.

Continuous EU/US/Middle East funds flowing to Asia...

No major stock market trend reversal, above positive factors will drive stock markets up (moderate or expect the unexpected). Watch 3rd November trader's stock market trend... Never go against Fed...

Stock Markets Consolidate Till 3rd November

No stock market trend updates till 3rd November, Fed meeting on QE, quantitative easing.
Consolidation phase for stock markets. Stay neutral!

Cramer : Market Right, Media Wrong About Stocks

Cramer spent Wednesday’s “Stop Trading!” talking about a theme that’s common for the “Mad Money” host, namely the gap between the media’s outlook on the economy and market’s take on it...

Cramer - Mad Money: Market Right, Media Wrong About Stocks - CNBC

Asia Stock Market Market Will Top 2009 High

Refer to 18th October stock market trend posting, SSE RSI Overbought Can Ignore?

Technical analysis from Incredible Charts, Market Trading Diary for reference.
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php

China 3rd Quarter GDP Reporting Tomorrow

China is due to report third-quarter GDP and a slew of economic data for September on Thursday... It'll set the Asia stock market trend for the next few months... Critical day to watch! Likely positive stock market trend moving forward.

CNBC Stock Market News — Legg Mason's Bill Miller: Best Time to Buy Stocks Since 1980s

Stocks are cheap right now and it may be the best time to buy them since the early 1980s, Legg Mason Capital Management Chairman and CIO Bill Miller told CNBC Wednesday...


CNBC Stock Market News — Legg Mason's Bill Miller: Best Time to Buy Stocks Since 1980s — CNBC.com Stock Blog - CNBC

Stock Market Sentiment Trend Turns Negative

CBOE showing strong sign of PUT buying/shorts but stock markets with good selling support (not one way ticket down). CBOE Total Volume Put/Call Index moving closer to 1 or cross soon.

Over bullish market sentiment needs a break and likely the Unexpected in the making... Charts can be a "Double-Sword" - depends on individual analysis! Buy on dips laggard blue chips with positive P/L growth and strong balance sheet. US Richest Trader will unleash the big game plan soon with fellow "partners"...

SSE RSI Overbought - Can Ignore?

Seems to be repeating April 2009 to End July 2009 RSI above 80%. In a secular bear market, but bullish market trend for short to medium term (next 5 or 6 months). If no major market trend reversal, equity markets will likely continue to power ahead strongly...   Will need to re-align higher TOPs for this year! STI was projected to hit 3500 by equity market analysts. SSE - 3800? SPX - 1500?

SSE RSI Overbought

Overbought market RSI will dip soon. Need a small break! Likely next week, market will continue to consolidate. Buy on dip your closely monitored blue chips when hit your bottom prices!  Medium term, Asia market trends will continue to trade higher high until the TOPs....  Watch copper market trend - will likely cross 400 by early November.

Fed Chief Ben Bernanke Makes Case For Quantitative Easing

Bernanke made a case for new Fed moves to boost economic growth, saying inflation is running below the bank's objective of 2% and that the economy is growing too slowly to reduce unemployment. Watch the Video.  Source - WSJ.com

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Good news for stock market. Higher high stock market trend in the making...

Equity Market Consolidation For Quantitative Easing!

Buy on dip selective laggard blue chips. Short at your own risk. Very high probability quantitative easing will drive the stock markets higher high (tops may form earlier than expected) very soon especially at Asia and emerging markets. More funds will flow in this direction. Watch copper market and BDI trends! 

Trader's Stock Market Trend - SPX and SSE - 12th October

SPX - NYSE
SPX bear market bullish market trend consolidation low volume. Synchronised with Copper market price consolidation.

SPX RSI trend near overbought. Daily SPX chart RSI near 50 before rebound again!

Today (same as yesterday) likely range 1150 to 1170. Strong market trendline support at 1150/1132.

SPX short term market trend top 1170 to 1180 (higher volume near 1200)Year end - Near 1250 and may cross 1300, likely the stock market trend top (market trend indicator)

SSE Shanghai Composite Index
SSE RSI daily chart overbought. Shanghai Composite equities market trend will likely consolidate near 2766/2738. Cross over 2700 last Friday and 2800 on Monday.

SSE daily RSI >70% overbought

Short term market trend will re-cross 2700 and above. Sustain above 2800, next target 3000 psychological resistance. Near 3150 (November/December 2010), likely the stock market trend top (indicator) for this year. Near 3378/3429 (February/March 2011), likely end of primary bear market stock upward trend.

HSI Hang Seng Index
HSI Index - daily and weekly RSI overbought. HSI equity market trend will likely consolidate around 22700 to 22900 range.

STI Singapore Index
STI equity market trend consolidating around 3150 to 3163 range (cross down 3150 this morning and rebound towards 3163 before this posting). Strong support at 3132. Buy on dip for marine sector laggard blue chip stocks.

STI RSI near overbought. Watch BDI and Copper market trend for equities investment reference!

Short term, the bear market bullish market trend 1st resistance 3163 (cross up and down - pendulum swing). (strong resistance). 2nd resistance 3200 psychological resistance.Year end Near 3250/3300, likely the stock market trend top (indicator)

CBOE OptionsEquity/Stock Investment Market Sentiments
CBOE Options Total Equity And Index Options = 0.83
CBOE Index Options = 1.19 (retreating from short term peak in October, 1.7 towards bear market, bullish market sentiment)
Trader’s Stock Market Trend – Bear market mild bullish Market Sentiments (this week options calendar closing may be positive).
VIX 18.96 at record low (is this a sign of pull back?)

Note : Bearish or Bullish Stock Investment Market Sentiments based on Options volume for selected market equities and indices (Dow Industrial, SPX) - http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
Another equity market sentiment indicator (chart) – ISEE Index – ISE Sentiment Index Chart.

McClellan Oscillator Indicator - Technical Analysis Trend Indicator
McClellan Oscillator Indicator showing sign of market trending down! Low volume market trend – short term cyclic. Near short term market trend top indicator. May up mildly this week before reversal.

BDI (Baltic Dry Index) Fundamental Analysis Trend Indicator
Stock market day traders and fund Traders will be watching closely this sector market trend!
Daily chart, cross 50MA AND 20MA trendline resistance. Downside risk minimal.
Next up resistance 2878 (200MA).
RSI > 50%, shipping related stocks bullish. 
RSI > 70%, likely the stock market trend top for this sector (indicator).
Also watch Transport sector  on the economy fundamental!

Copper Technical Analysis Trend Indicator
Copper market trend consolidating. Higher high and higher low.
November/December near 400 (likelihood new higher high next few months), likely the stock market trend top (copper indicator) for year 2010.

Note : No major negative event/reversal, stock markets will trade higher high and higher low after each short term equities market trend consolidation. Above any typing error, please correct us! Trade with caution.

Hang Seng Index HSI : RSI Overbought

HSI Index - daily and weekly RSI overbought. HSI equity market trend will likely consolidate around 22700 to 22900 range.
SSE, shanghai composite RSI also near overbought. Stock market trend will likely consolidate around 2738.
STI will likely consolidate below 3163 (may cross downward to 3150).
Watch SPX market trend today for both opening and closing. Today's estimate range 1165 to 1180.

Equity Shortists! Don't Under-estimate QEs

Japan got the QE (quantitative easing) money press rolling. UK (inclusive of EU) could be next after weak growth. US also in the QE queue. Never, never under-estimate the coordinated efforts of G7's QE money press machines. G7 must help the poor consumers (victims of the poor economy) and not the super rich.

Equity market will speak louder soon... Hope shortists don't get squeeze hard in the short term. Big Shortists "slaughtered" US market and world markets from 2008 to March 2009. Central banks keep printing $$$. US and EU Economies started to recover and recently showing signs of weakness, equity shortists got the ball rolling higher everyday in October. CBOE options are showing the facts!  Perhaps, short options should be removed totally, but the "pull and push" thrills will be gone! If investors are squeezed hard instead of shortists, that's fate! Life has to move on... Upcoming US senators' election, consumers' behaviour will tilt towards... Investors better sideline to protect their hard-earn capital until direction is clear.

80/20 rules, central bankers need growth in employment and stimulate consumer's confidence to spend. If 80% loss money to the 20% shortists over a prolong period, any advantages! If 80% of the equity pool makes money, there's a difference in the economy. Shortists' pool have "rich fund" that made many billions in USD during the Lehman's collapsed. And perhaps, "compound interest + some capital" pay back time to the "Super Rich" press machine after pumping Trillions to beef up the economy. Don't forget, money press machines also need electricity to run. May be need to pay press machine depreciation and electricity bill on behalf of tax payers. No one can predict Big Ben's mind but will be unleashed soon...

Fictitious story for fun reading only over the weekend.

SSE Rally

Open today and close > 2700 at 2742.81 (mid day). Positive market trend!
Market higher high trend indicator... if no negative news on property clamping down.

SPX-SSE-STI-CBOE Options-Copper-BDI - Trader's Stock Market Trend

Stock Markets' Indicators (Estimation)====================================================

S&P500 / SPX
SPX Index 1151.41 to 1163.87, closed up at 1158.06 on low volume
Market (RSI) near overbought. Daily SPX chart RSI may cross below or near 50 before rebound again!
Today (same as yesterday) likely range 1150 to 1170. Watch employment data. Consolidate down to 1150 pivot resistance will be healthy for bullish market trend. Strong market trendline support at 1150/1132.
Short term market trend top 1170 to 1180 (higher volume near 1200)
Year end - Near 1250 and may cross 1300, likely the stock market trend top (market trend indicator)

BDI (Baltic Dry Index)
Stock market day traders and fund Traders will be watching closely this sector market trend! Transport sector has impact on the economy fundamental! RSI > 50, bullish. Monitor MACD cross over signal!
Daily chart, cross 50MA trendline resistance. Downside risk minimal unless G7 countries post out negative impact news! Unlikely scenario...
1st resistance 2662 (20MA) - Cross over!
2nd resistance 2881 (200MA) - Awaiting...
RSI > 50, shipping related stocks will be bullish.
RSI > 70, likely the stock market trend top for this sector (indicator)

Copper
Copper market trend consolidating - positive sign. Higher high and higher low. Daily chart RSI - overbought. Weekly RSI chart near overbought. Traders market direction - closely watch trading indicator.
Near 400 (likelihood new higher high next few months), likely the stock market trend top (copper indicator).

STI
STI equity market consolidating. STI index (RSI near overbought) will consolidate around 3140 to 3163 range (same view as yesterday). Higher low and buy on dips laggard blue chip equities - marine related blue chip stocks investment (Sembawang Marine, Keppel Corp and NOL). Property sector (Capitaland, Keppel Land, etc.) also a laggard and may surge on good quarterly P/L – may consider for intermediate term equity investment. Stocks in this sector will trend up higher high from mid October onwards.

Watch BDI and Copper market trend for equities investment reference! Short term, the bear market bullish market trend 1st resistance 3163 (cross over and cross down - pendulum swing). 2nd resistance 3200 also the psychological resistance. Note : correct the 1st resistance error from 3100 to 3163 (my apology) in previous post.
Year end Near 3250/3300, likely the stock market trend top (indicator)

SSE
Stock Market upward trend affected by government cramping down on property! But trend up 44.98 pts and closed at 2655.66 last Friday. If no further property curbing, SSE will trade upward after golden week holidays.
Short term market trend will re-cross 2700 and above.
Near 3150 (November/December 2010), likely the stock market trend top (indicator) for this year.
Near 3378/3429 (February/March 2011), likely end of primary bear market stock upward trend.

Equity/Stock Market Sentiments – CBOE Options - $CPC
Bear Market Bearish sentiments as observed from CBOE options. $CPC chart bullish from 0.078 (7th Oct) to CBOE options closing 1.07 index (CBOE Options Total Put /Call Ratio). Need higher equities accumulation volume to sustain next week bear market bullish rally.
CBOE Options $CPCI chart (Total Index Put/Call Ratio) shot up from 1.3 to 1.69 (is this a deception or mild reversal next week during CBOE options calendar closing). Bear vs Bull - who will win?
My view mild consolidation and bearish market bull sentiment will charge up the “small hill” before sensing for direction – TRADERs set the short term equity investment direction!

NYSE McClellan Oscillator Indicator – $NYMO EOD
McClellan Oscillator Indicator showing sign of market trending down! Low volume market trend – short term cyclic. Near short term market trend top indicator. May up mildly this week before reversal.

Note : No major negative event/reversal, stock markets will trade higher high and higher low.

Market Sentiments Trader Emotions - Yoshikami: Dow 11,000? The Sands Shift Yet Again

With the Dow currently approaching 11,000, emotions are running high that the “good old days” are back.

This sentiment is generally based on a perspective that if the market goes up, all is well with the underlying economy. To many, green numbers scrolling along the bottom of the screen means things are going well; “I'm making money this week after all, right?".

Well; maybe not.

As institutional investors, here is how we look at market sentiment.

Short-term, it matters.

In trading your portfolio, sentiment can be an important factor to consider as you adjust and allocate. But while the current, transient wave of emotion must be taken into account, it's absolutely critical not to allow the latest headlines or market movements to dictate your long term plan.

This is the one behavioral mistake made by most investors; getting caught up in feelings rather than rational thought can be dangerous to your overall investment strategy.
Yoshikami cautions feelings rather than rational thought can be dangerous to your overall investment strategy.
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Apple [AAPL 289.3074 0.1174 (+0.04%) ], for example, is riding a wave of sentiment that they can do no wrong.

Let's face it; despite "antennagate" they have done a lot right.

A doctor friend of mine frequently reminds me about the wonder and brilliance of Steve Jobs and Apple Computer. To a large degree I agree that this company is executing well. However, one should be very careful to assume that a company's share prices are immune from downdrafts, even if their company is in high demand. We are not negative on Apple, but just want to illustrate how strongly sentiment can play into investment decisions. Anyone remember when Cisco [CSCO 22.44 0.14 (+0.63%) ] was touted as the first trillion dollar company? Don't think the good companies can't trade lower? They can.

Citigroup [C 4.165 0.065 (+1.59%) ] is a company currently shrouded in negative sentiment because of its obvious stumbles over the last several years. The naysayers and negative analysts have factual reasons why they think this asset has problems. Still, one cannot discount the overwhelming dour mood about banks in general which has impacted stock prices and analyst perspectives. Emotions matter, but emotion may constrain some from looking at an asset like Citigroup with a more balanced perspective.

General Electric [GE 17.085 0.185 (+1.09%) ], which appears to be positioning itself well for the next 10 years of global growth, has a huge overhang on it's stock price because of uncertainties related to it’s financial services unit. While these concerns are certainly justified, one must determine whether sentiment is excessively gloomy. Our take is that this negative sentiment is probably overdone. This is a diversified global company that is not afraid to take action to position for the new global economy and one day (who knows when), credit conditions will stabilize. (*Editor's Note: GE is the parent company of CNBC and NBC Universal)

Headlines vanish in a click.

The entire mood and tone can change based on what’s in vogue today. Websites will scream panic then euphoria, seesawing from week to week. Puncture all this hot air with a recognition that facts and emotion together dictate market movement. Your response should all be assessed in the context of your personal circumstances and goals.

There's a new formula (actually a forgotten formula) that investors should integrate into their decision making process. Facts plus emotion, combined with your investment philosophy/goals, should be the foundation of your thinking and decision-making process. Recognize and accept the irrationality that exists.

"The market is essentially a very knowledgeable, well-educated adolescent animal driven partly by reality and partly by fear/greed. Mood swings are rampant."

Most think that investment professionals and investors carefully analyze data and make non-emotional decisions about portfolio strategy. Sometimes yes. Many times no. It is usually more complex than that.

The market itself is not rational nor are its participants. For that reason the market is essentially a very knowledgeable, well-educated adolescent animal driven partly by reality and partly by fear/greed. Mood swings are rampant. It's not an underestimation to suggest that the trading market is perpetually entrenched in this adolescent phase of development. If this is true, investors need to be aware of this condition while navigating today's murky investment waters.

Welcome to the world of perpetual adolescence.

Recognizing and acknowledging the reality of this unruly market can go a long way toward easing your concerns and assisting you to gain a balanced perspective in making investment decisions.

Quantitative Easing-QE US and Europe

Central banks in the US and Europe likely will implement "several rounds" of monetary easing programs in November, but with uncertain chances of success, Pimco co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC.

The first leg of such programs—known in market vernacular as "quantitative easing," or QE—was somewhat effective but largely a disappointment, he said. (Click here for an explanation of QE.)

Unemployment remains high and the housing market, which El-Erian pegged as critical to a complete economic recovery, is languishing.

While investors have been bidding up almost all asset classes since sentiment spread that the Federal Reserve would implement the so-called "QE2" round, that could change if the central bank's action doesn't have the desired impact, said El-Erian, who helps run the world's largest group of bond funds.

"Equity prices at these levels assume an effective policy response. Effective means it will impact the real economy," he said. "Where you end up fundamentally depends on your vision of the economy."

He compared the economy to a rocket, in which it won't be enough for it to merely gain speed but rather will require enough momentum to break from the current pattern.

"The rocket has to achieve escape velocity," he said. "It's not enough for it to go up—it has to go up sharply to achieve escape velocity. The question is: What's the fuel for that escape velocity?

"There's good fuel, which is private-sector 'animal spirits.' That is what we all should be looking for. There's bad fuel, which is continuous policy injections, because that has consequences—the dollar, gold, etc.—and the judgment becomes whether that characterization is correct. Do we really need escape velocity or not?"

El-Erian cautioned that the big run-up in stocks over the past six weeks could unwind if once again the unconventional means of fiscal stimulus fail to live up to expectations.

"The risk is that this may be ineffective again," he said. "In fact, the big story of the last year and a half is every time we have had a policy action outcomes have fallen short of expectations. So there's something broken in the transmission mechanism."

For investors, "there's lots of money to be made as long as you keep your eye on the trio of benefits, costs and risks," he said, but he added later regarding QE2: "What's going to happen I suspect is when the Fed comes in, the stuff it buys is going to stay where it is. The stuff it doesn't buy is going to be more shaky."
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Quantitative easing - "QE" as it has become known - looks to increase money in the economy. For the Fed, the most prevalent tool is the cutting of its funds rate, which in turn pushes other rates lower.

Short term, will boost the equities and stock markets. SPX 1250 still on target!

SPX Indicator - SPX Mixed Headlines!

SPX will consolidate within 1130 to 1155 range. Strong support at 1130/1124.
SPX short term higher high (1170 to 1180) - First or Final short term market trend TOP? Higher volume buying for consecutive days, SPX will cross 1200 and move towards 1220 to 1250 range (let's stop here and make equities investment decision at this cross road - No one can predict how big the Ben's QE bear market rally effect now).

Stocks trading, watch Friday employment data on SPX direction! Short term trader's market trend, buy on SPX dips on selective laggard blue chip equities.

Copper & Gold Charts RSI Indicators - Market Trend - RSI Overbought

Copper RSI daily indicator overbought  and weekly near overbought (RSI > 70% overbought). Volume dipping! Copper - consolidation market support at 3.6 (1st)/3.4 (2nd). Both weekly and daily charts below for reference. Commodity traders seem to be taking a break after a good profit! Consolidation will be healthy for equities or stocks in the short term.

Copper Daily Chart

Copper Weekly Chart

Gold RSI indicator overbought for both daily and weekly charts (RSI > 70%). Lower volume on buy and sell. Correction will kick in soon. Market correction support 1300/1250. Will resume upside after consolidation. Asians will continue to buy gold for new year festivals. Gold prices will resume higher high after higher low. Traders may sell gold (lock in profit) and buy on stocks or equities dip for upcoming P/L quarterly results. They will resume gold "collection" on dip after P/L...

Gold Daily Chart

Gold Weekly Chart

Above information for reference only. No one can predict Big Traders' next move (both commodity and stock market trend) except themselves!

US private sector sheds 39,000 jobs in Sept: report

NEW YORK - US private employers unexpectedly cut 39,000 jobs in September after an upwardly revised gain of 10,000 in August, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday.

The August figure was originally reported as a loss of 10,000.

The median of estimates from 38 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, was for a rise of 24,000 private-sector jobs in September.

The ADP figures come ahead of the government's much more comprehensive labour market report on Friday, which includes both public and private sector employment.

That report is expected to show overall nonfarm payrolls were unchanged in September, based on a Reuters poll of analysts, but a rise in private payrolls of 75,000.

Economists often refer to the ADP report to fine-tune their expectations for the payrolls numbers, though it is not always accurate in predicting the outcome. -- REUTERS

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Trader's Stock market trend indicator - consolidate and will likely cross below1150 this week. Strong resistance support at 1132/1124. Trade with caution (Quantitative Easing, QE, will be a critical FED key to sustain the bear market rally to 1170 and 1180 range). Likely this Friday unemployment data will be negative news...

Bear Market Rally (Likely Mild Correction)

Stock Markets' Indicators (Estimation)====================================================
S&P500 / SPX
SPX Index 1140.68 to 1162.76, closed up at 1160.75 on low volume
Market (RSI) near overbought. Daily SPX chart RSI may cross below 50 marks before rebound again!
Today likely range bound between 1150 to 1170. Strong market trendline support at 1132.

Short term market trend top 1170 to 1180 (higher volume near 1200)

Year end - Near 1250 and may cross 1300, likely the stock market trend top (market trend indicator)

BDI (Baltic Dry Index)

Stock market traders will be watching closely this sector stock market trend!
Daily chart, cross 50MA trendline resistance 2500.9 and closed at 2569. Downside risk minimal
1st resistance 2653 (20MA)
2nd resistance 2887 (200MA)
RSI > 50, shipping related stocks will be bullish.
RSI > 70, likely the stock market trend top for this sector (indicator)

Copper
Copper trending up and will consolidate again. Higher high and higher low.
Near 400 (likelihood new higher high next few months), likely the stock market trend top (copper indicator).

STI
Bear market bullish rally for the past few days. STI index touched 3197.34 higher high this morning.
Daily higher high on laggard blue chips. Buy on dip on marine related blue chip stocks (Sembawang Marine, Keppel Corp and NOL).
STI index (RSI overbought) will likely consolidate around 3140 to 3163 range. Watch BDI and Copper!
Stocks in this sector will trend up higher high from mid October onwards.
Short Term bear market bullish market trend 1st resistance 3100 3163 (strong resistance). 2nd resistance  at 3200 psychological resistance. Note : correct the 1st resistance error from 3100 to 3163 (my apology)
Year end Near 3250/3300, likely the stock market trend top (indicator)


SSE
Stock Market upward trend affected by government cramping down on property! But trend up 44.98 pts and closed at 2655.66 last Friday. If no further property curbing, SSE will trade upward after golden week holidays.
Short term market trend will re-cross 2700 and above.
Near 3150 (November/December 2010), likely the stock market trend top (indicator) for this year.
Near 3378/3429 (February/March 2011), likely end of primary bear market stock upward trend.

Note : No major negative event/reversal, stock markets will trade higher high and higher low.

Positive Market Trend Headlines - CNBC Stock Market News — Why Markets Will Continue Rallying This Month: Strategist

Stocks had the best September in over 70 years. So can the rally continue this month? Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak and David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds shared their insights.

“The economy needs some confidence in the private sector,” Kelly told CNBC.

“This economy has what it takes to grow faster—we’re seeing major improvements in consumer balance sheets, we’re seeing a big pile of cash on corporate balance sheets so people have the ability to spend," he explained. "It’s important for the Fed and the federal government to say the economy has the ability to grow.”

Kelly said looking at the relative prices of stocks and bonds, stocks are "cheap" while bonds are "expensive," so investors should be overweight in stocks.

In the meantime, Boockvar said he expects markets to continue rallying in October.

“We’re having a quantitative easing party and we’re having an expectation that there will be a move to the center in Washington in November,” he said.
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Stock market analyst - positive market sentiment! Read articles posted today from very negative MARKET SENTIMENTs to very positive market sentiment. Fears and Emotions still the "mastermind" killers in stock trading.
"Traders' Bullish SENTIMENT" - Market will likely rally up to 1170 to 1180 range before consolidating again! Buy on dip blue chips still the catch of the day but not at higher high!

Fundamental Analysis - US services grow more than expected in September: ISM

WASHINGTON - Growth in the massive US services sector rose more than expected in September, a key index showed on Tuesday.

The Institute of Supply Management said its non-manufacturing index rose to 53.2 per cent, the ninth consecutive month of growth.

An index reading above 50.0 per cent indicates expansion in the key sector, which accounts for the bulk of overall US economic output.

Most analysts had expected the index would rise slightly to 51.8 per cent, from 51.5 per cent in August. -- AFP
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Comments : Positive stock market trend indicator (fundamental) - SPX 1200 (likely break earlier than expected) will break soon after a mild stock market consolidation! No major negative stock market related event, every short cycle (one or two weeks) trend, higher high and higher low. 

Fundamental Analysis - World economy decoupling from US: economists

Global reliance on US trade diminishes; emerging markets show more strength

(WASHINGTON) Wall Street economists are reviving a bet that the global economy will withstand the US slowdown.

Little comfort: Sixteen months after the US economy emerged from recession, its recovery is losing momentum, with falling factory orders and rising unemployment

Just three years since America began dragging the world into its deepest recession in seven decades, Goldman Sachs Group Inc, Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc and BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research are forecasting that this time will be different.

Goldman Sachs predicts worldwide growth will slow 0.2 percentage point to 4.6 per cent in 2011, even as expansion in the US falls to 1.8 per cent from 2.6 per cent.

Underpinning their analysis is the view that international reliance on US trade has diminished and is too small to spread the lingering effects of America's housing bust. Providing the US pain doesn't roil financial markets as it did in the credit crisis, Goldman Sachs expects a weakening dollar, higher bond yields outside the US and stronger emerging-market equities.

'So long as it doesn't turn to flu, the world can withstand a cold from the US,' Ethan Harris, head of developed-markets economic research in New York at BofA Merrill Lynch, said in an interview. He predicts the United States will expand 1.8 per cent next year, compared with 3.9 per cent globally.

That may provide comfort for some of the central bankers and finance ministers from 187 nations flocking to Washington for annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank on Oct 8-10.

IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard last month predicted 'positive but low growth in advanced countries', while developing nations expand at a 'very high' rate. He will release revised forecasts tomorrow.

'The world has already become partially decoupled,' Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, a professor at New York's Columbia University, said in a Sept 20 interview in Zurich. He will speak at an IMF event this week.

Sixteen months after the world's largest economy emerged from recession, the US recovery is losing momentum, with declining factory orders, a slowdown in pending home sales and rising unemployment, according to the median forecasts of economists in Bloomberg News surveys taken ahead of reports this week. Their predictions don't include another contraction, with growth estimated at 2.7 per cent this year.

Emerging markets are showing more strength. Manufacturing in China accelerated for a second consecutive month in September, and industrial production in India jumped 13.8 per cent in July from a year earlier, more than twice the June pace.

'It seems that recent economic data help to confirm the story of emerging-markets outperformance,' said David Lubin, chief economist for emerging markets at Citigroup Inc in London.

The gap in growth rates between the developing and advanced worlds is widening, he said. Emerging economies will account for about 60 per cent of global expansion this year and next, up from about 25 per cent a decade ago, according to his estimates.

The main reason for the divergence: 'Direct transmission from a US slowdown to other economies through exports is just not large enough to spread a US demand problem globally,' Goldman Sachs economists Dominic Wilson and Stacy Carlson wrote in a Sept 22 report entitled If the US sneezes. . .

Take the so-called BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China. While exports account for almost 20 per cent of their gross domestic product (GDP), sales to the US compose less than 5 per cent of GDP, according to their estimates.

That means even if US growth slowed 2 per cent, the drag on these four countries would be about 0.1 percentage point, the economists reckon.

Developed economies including the UK, Germany and Japan also have limited exposure, they said.

Economies outside the US have room to grow that the US doesn't, partly because of its outsized slump in house prices, Mr Wilson and Ms Carlson said. The drop of almost 35 per cent is more than twice as large as the worst declines in the rest of the Group of 10 industrial nations, they found.

The risk to the decoupling wager is a repeat of 2008, when the US property bubble burst and then morphed into a global credit and banking shock that ricocheted around the world. For now, Goldman Sachs's index of US financial conditions signals that bond and stock markets aren't stressed by the US outlook.

The break with the US will be reflected in a weaker dollar, with the Chinese yuan appreciating to 6.49 per dollar in a year from 6.685 on Oct 1, according to Goldman Sachs forecasts.

The bank is also betting that yields on US 10-year debt will be lower by June than equivalent yields for Germany, the UK, Canada, Australia and Norway. US notes will rise to 2.8 per cent from 2.52 per cent, Germany's will increase to 3 per cent from 2.3 per cent and Canada's will grow to 3.8 per cent from 2.76 per cent on Oct 1, Goldman Sachs projects.

Goldman Sachs isn't alone in making the case for decoupling. Mr Harris at BofA Merrill Lynch said he didn't buy the argument prior to the financial crisis. Now he believes global growth is strong enough to offer a 'handkerchief' to the US as it suffers a 'growth recession' of weak expansion and rising unemployment, he said.

Giving him confidence is his calculation that the US share of global GDP has shrunk to about 24 per cent from 31 per cent in 2000. He also notes that, unlike the US, many countries avoided asset bubbles, kept their banking systems sound and improved their trade and budget positions. -- Bloomberg

STI/SGX - Sembcorp Marine wins US$364 mln contract

SINGAPORE - Sembcorp Marine, the world's second-biggest oil-rig builder, said on Tuesday its subsidiary secured two US$364 million contract to build two jack-up rigs with options for another 3 from Houston-based Atwood Oceanics Pacific Ltd. -- REUTERS
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Expect the unexpected  - volume trending up!

Equity Market Traders Alert - Negative Divergences - Negative Stock Markets' Headlines

Gold will hit 2000, Stock analysts projected Baltic dry index (BDI) will be stagnant this year around 2500 to 2600 (next year target 4000) due to China slow down in iron ore import and property cooling... October stock market indicators or signals - will pull back 10 to 12%, October and November equity markets will be bear market trending down.... Better buy gold and stay away from equity or stocks... Professional Analysts expecting bear market stocks trending down.  Common stock markets' headlines... Emotions or Fears to "wick" out weak retail investors. Buy on dip blue chips and won't recommend short unless you've very high market risk appetite!

Fears and Negative Emotions' Sentiments (Bearish market Sentiment Indicator rising soon) were triggered again! Retail investors' confidence to invest in equity market suddently turn to indecision or make decision against the equity market trends...

Still the same call posted on last Saturday. Short term cyclic trend trading higher high if no major negative events. Short term shortists squeeze will pull SPX back to 1150 (need higher volume to cross over) and trend up to 1170 to 1180. Nevertheless, trade with caution.

Stock Markets' Indicators (Estimation)
====================================================
S&P500/SPX (range bound) on low volume

SPX Index 1131.87 to 1148.16, close at 1137.03
Weekly chart shows stock market trend will retest 1150 upward again (on higher volume) - expect the unexpected. Daily SPX chart RSI may cross below 50 marks before rebound again!
Today Range likely between 1130 to 1155. Strong support at 1130/1124 20MA.
Short term market trend top 1170 to 1180 (higher volume near 1200)
Year end - Near 1250 and may cross 1300, likely the stock market trend top (market trend indicator)

BDI (Baltic Dry Index)
Stock market traders will be watching closely this sector stock market trend! Consolidating...
RSI > 50, shipping related stocks will be bullish.
RSI > 70, likely the stock market trend top for this sector (indicator)

Copper
Copper is Consolidating and trending up. Higher high and higher low.
Near 400, likely the stock market trend top (copper indicator).

STI
Buy on dip on marine related blue chip stocks (Sembawang Marine, Keppel Corp and NOL).
Consolidation phase before the laggards trend up higher higher and higher low.
Stocks in this sector will trend up from mid October onwards.
Short Term market trend top near 3160 to 3170 range (cross over yesterday). Trend down to 3136 this morning. Will retest 3160 again. Need higher volume to sustain and cross 3200 psychological resistance.
Year end Near 3250/3300, likely the stock market trend top (indicator)

SSE
Stock Market upward trend affected by government cramping down on property! But trend up 44.98 pts and closed at 2655.66 last Friday. If no further property curbing, SSE will trade upward.
Short term market trend will re-cross 2700 and above.
Near 3150 (November/December 2010), likely the stock market trend top (indicator) for this year.
Near 3378/3429 (February/March 2011), likely end of primary bear market stock upward trend.

Stock Markets - STI closed higher

S'pore shares close higher
By JOANNAH PEREZ
Singapore shares closed higher on Monday with the blue-chip Straits Times Index up 26.55 points to 3,157.45.
Volume was 2.16 billion shares worth $2.15 billion.
Gainers led losers 343 to 205.

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My stock markets "guess" was correct - refer to my last posting over the weekend. Stock market shortists have hard time today at Asia. Don't short the laggard but buy on dip this week. Expect the unexpected...

Stock Markets - Hang Seng Index Up 1.17%

Stock Markets  October 4, 2010, 4.26 pm (Singapore time)
HK stocks end 1.17% higher
HONG KONG - Hong Kong shares rose 1.17 per cent on Friday as dealers followed a rally on Wall Street. The benchmark Hang Seng Index added 260.49 points to end at 22,618.66 on turnover of HK$96.03 billion (US$11.35 billion).
Chinese markets were closed for a public holiday. -- AFP

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Refer to my last posting, same call on the stock markets trend.

Trader Stock Market Trend Weekly View

Expecting laggard SSE and STI trending up Higher High from mid Oct to mid November.
SPX (1139.42 to 1150.30) and closed at 1146.24 with light buy and sell volume.
Next week - Monday likely up for most of the markets and follow by stock market trends - range bound consolidation. Mild stock market correction or pull back. Watch US unemployment, corporate results and QE! Mid October onwards, trend up higher high if no major negative event.

Put negative emotions aside in stock investment or trading. #1 killer to trade against the trader's stock market trend! Read Think and Grow Rich on Emotions!

China PMI - September

BEIJING—China's manufacturing activity expanded in September and accelerated from the previous month, an official gauge showed Friday, adding to evidence that Chinese growth remains robust and that its slowdown from extraordinary growth rates earlier this year will be mild.

China's Purchasing Managers Index rose to 53.8 in September from 51.7 in August, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which issues the data with the National Bureau of Statistics, said in a statement.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing activity, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
"The continuing rise in the September PMI indicates that the process of economic growth adjusting downward from a high level has already moderated," said CFLP analyst Zhang Liqun in a note. "Economic growth will shift from being supported by stimulus policies to being supported by market forces."

Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting said that the PMI's rebound since July, after declining for a few months beginning in April, shows "the limited impact of the property tightening measures on developers' construction activities, and the government's big push on public housing."

On Wednesday, HSBC's competing PMI index also rose, to 52.9 in September from 51.9 in August.

Of the CFLP PMI's 11 categories, nine rose and two fell compared with August, indicating broad-based strength. Only two categories, stocks of purchases and stocks of finished goods, were below the expansionary threshold of 50.

The new export orders subindex rose slightly, to 52.8 from 52.2, indicating steady external demand.

The input price subindex, however, rose strongly, indicating building inflationary pressures. CFLP said price increases were especially strong in the textile, food product, common equipment and chemical manufacturing industries.
 
Source : WSJ.com

S&P500 (SPX), SSE n STI - Trader Stock Market Trend

S&P500/SPX (range bound) on low volume
SPX Index 1136.08 to 1157.16, close at 1141.20
Fund/Traders push up the stock market index above 1150 to 1157.16 in early trade (low volume - can't sustain at 1150) and stock market trend down! Weekly chart shows stock market trend will cross 1150 upward again (higher volume) - expect the unexpected. Daily SPX chart RSI may cross below 50 marks before rebound again!
Today Range likely between 1135 to 1155 (same as yesterday). Strong support at 1130/1124 20MA.
Short term market trend top 1170 to 1180 (higher volume near 1200)
Year end - Near 1250 and may cross 1300, likely the stock market trend top (indicator)

SPX Daily Chart

SPX Weekly Chart

BDI (Baltic Dry Index)
Traders will be watching closely this sector stock market trend! Consolidating...
RSI crosses 50, shipping related stocks will be bullish.
RSI near 70, likely the stock market trend top for this sector (indicator)

Copper
Copper is Consolidating and trending up. Higher high and higher low.
Near 400, likely the stock market trend top (indicator).

STI
Buy on dip on marine related blue chip stocks (Sembawang Marine, Keppel Corp and NOL).
Consolidation and index mildly trend up this morning.
Stocks in this sector will trend up from mid October onwards.
Short Term market trend top near 3160 to 3170 range.
Year end Near 3250/3300, likely the stock market trend top (indicator)

SSE
Stock Market upward trend affected by government cramping down on property! But trend up 44.98 pts and closed at 2655.66. Nice gap up!
China's PMI (purchasing managers’ index) rose to 53.8 from 51.7.
Short term market trend will re-cross 2700 and above.
Near 3150 (November/December 2010), likely the stock market trend top (indicator) for this year.

Near 3378/3429 (February/March 2011), likely end of primary bear market stock upward trend.

*** Note : Trade with cautions! Both SSE and HSI close today.

Doug Kass: 'Toxic Combination' Threatens Sept. S&P Gains

As bullish as the momentum may seem in stocks right now, chatter is growing that it could all come to a screeching halt on Friday October 1st once the month and the quarter close.

Strategic investor Doug Kass of Seabreeze is among those investors who thinks we're about to hit a wall.

He tells the Fast Money desk he “growing more fearful (of the rally) on both technical and fundamental grounds."

Of course a pullback wouldn't surprise anyone. The Dow [.DJIA 10815.75 -19.53 (-0.18%) ] is up over 8% on the month while the S&P [.SPX 1142.84 -1.89 (-0.17%) ] is poised to end the month about 9% higher.

But Kass suggests the market is looking at more than a pullback.

”The market is delivering a potentially toxic combination of low volume, poor breadth and weakening financial stocks. These are classical bearish signals.”

To make matters all the more precarious he believes the September rally is predicated on faulty fundamentals – specifically, confidence that the Federal Reserve will take extraordinary steps to spur economic activity.

Kass doesn't think QE2 will be all that big or all that powerful. ”In the last 24 hours we’re hearing from 3 Fed Reserve presidents that the Fed is hesitant to come into the market guns a blazing.”

To make matters that much worse, Kass suggests current gains are strictly due to momentum - just "a combination of algorithms and technical price momentum based strategies."

And long term, he thinks a weaker dollar is potentially catastrophic for the equity market. Though he concedes that in the short term "the weaker dollar improves our export base," in the long term he says "it encourages uneconomic economic activity such as government deficit spending. Then we get asset price inflation which is unsupported by cash flows. And we get huge inflation in commodities."

And all of that adds up to a toxic combination.

We know that Kass is renown as a bear so the negative commentary isn’t that surprising.

But Kass has an uncanny knack for reading the market. Less than a week before the S&P 500 hit a generational low of 676 on March 9, 2009, Kass went on CNBC and predicted the bottom. On July 6, 2010, he said the market had made its lows for the year and so far, that has also proved to be true.

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Comments : Stock Trader's market trend in October -
1. What is the bear stock market rally short term top and short term bottom?
2. Will FED QE pushs the stock market trend in October and November?
3. Politics talk about unemployment and $700 billion bailout (gain or loss) - gain from stock market capital withdrawal from banks (Citi...) and AIG... Your thoughts!
4. Others that will affect the trader investment strategy and retail investor stock market trend.