The number of individual investors who have a bullish outlook on the stock market trend for the next six months plunged to 21 percent, from 30 percent last week, according to a widely followed sentiment survey.
What’s more, this is the lowest weekly reading from the American Association of Individual Investors since a March 2009 level of 19 percent, which occurred just before the S&P 500 collapsed to a 12-year low of 676.... Source CNBC
Crash unlikely! SPX hits below 1040 and rebounce. Market oversold. Sellers sold on FEARs and Shortists are squeezed tonight! SPX end of day closes will set the direction next week. I'm neutral.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
S&P500 Today
S&P Future has touched 1055 to 1065 range. During posting, 1058, down by -7 points.
Refer to previous post, 1055 to 1057 likely bottom in early of this week will occur today when market opens. Daily RSI and SSTO are showing signs of short term bottoming. Is this the low and rebounce from here to 1126 and hold above 1130 with higher volume?
Market Trend will likely set tonight.
Comex Copper continuous contract is down to 1.26% (sign of consolidation on light volume). Gold is down 0.7% (may trend down further after recent high). Watch copper trend closely.
I think S&P500 will bounce up to 1070 to 1080 on Tuesday or Wednesday marketing closing.
Refer to previous post, 1055 to 1057 likely bottom in early of this week will occur today when market opens. Daily RSI and SSTO are showing signs of short term bottoming. Is this the low and rebounce from here to 1126 and hold above 1130 with higher volume?
Market Trend will likely set tonight.
Comex Copper continuous contract is down to 1.26% (sign of consolidation on light volume). Gold is down 0.7% (may trend down further after recent high). Watch copper trend closely.
I think S&P500 will bounce up to 1070 to 1080 on Tuesday or Wednesday marketing closing.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Douglas Kass Is Bullish on SPX - Positive Market Sentiment
An Extract from CNBC
Famed strategist Douglas Kass said Friday he is getting long the market and bullish financial names.
"I think it's approaching a time to re-risk," said Kass, founder and president of Seabreeze Partners, adding that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index [.SPX 1071.69 -3.94 (-0.37%) ] is contained between the range of 1020 and 1150. "If the market continues to decline, I will expand the long book further." .....
Famed strategist Douglas Kass said Friday he is getting long the market and bullish financial names.
"I think it's approaching a time to re-risk," said Kass, founder and president of Seabreeze Partners, adding that the Standard & Poor's 500 Index [.SPX 1071.69 -3.94 (-0.37%) ] is contained between the range of 1020 and 1150. "If the market continues to decline, I will expand the long book further." .....
Saturday, August 21, 2010
SSE (Consolidating and Trending Up) vs SPX (No clear market trend)
SPX (S&P 500) crossed down MA200 and MA50 this week. Likely gap down on Friday close 1065 to 1070 and close the gap around 1055 to 1057 next week before rebound. We may expect the unexpected on the 2nd half of the day. Bull vs Bear tussle has dragged a bit too long to give clear market direction! Perhaps, negative market headlines were affecting the investor's thinking and instilling unnecessary "FEAR".
Daily RSI on Thursday closed 22.82 and SSTO near bottom. Friday morning down may near to bottom. Watch chart daily signals early next week on market trend.
SSE (RSI peak at 61.32 and has cross down 50 (above bullish) to 47.36. Asia down led by SSE/HSI/Nikkei and the rest of the Asia market. SSTO also cross down - likely weaken next week starting from today and consolidate for rebound to 2700 to 2800 range (may consolidate here) before trending up above 3000. STI and HSI lead by SSE and S&P 500/Dow Jones
Gold seems to be near top and will trend down next week. Today showing sign of weakness or consolidating.. Signal from the chart.
Copper consolidating as observed from chart. If up next week onward, good sign for stock.
Daily RSI on Thursday closed 22.82 and SSTO near bottom. Friday morning down may near to bottom. Watch chart daily signals early next week on market trend.
SSE (RSI peak at 61.32 and has cross down 50 (above bullish) to 47.36. Asia down led by SSE/HSI/Nikkei and the rest of the Asia market. SSTO also cross down - likely weaken next week starting from today and consolidate for rebound to 2700 to 2800 range (may consolidate here) before trending up above 3000. STI and HSI lead by SSE and S&P 500/Dow Jones
Gold seems to be near top and will trend down next week. Today showing sign of weakness or consolidating.. Signal from the chart.
Copper consolidating as observed from chart. If up next week onward, good sign for stock.
Friday, August 20, 2010
LEI Indicator - Project Market Future Trend
My observations for reference. Read charts for market trend signals
US LEI Increases - (July):
Global Indicators :
Australia Up 0.3%
China Up 0.8% (SSE bottom near 2400 and trending up)
Euro Area Up 0.5% (FTSE/DAX/CAC - bottom and trending up)
France Down 0.3%
Germany Up 0.5%
Japan Down 1.8% (Nikkei225 - bottom in Aug and trending up - stimulus to be announced soon)
Korea No Change 0.0%
Mexico Down 1.4%
Spain Down 0.5%
U.K. Up 0.5%
U.S. Up 0.1% (lagging behind SSE by 3 to 4 months - bear vs bull still struggling at NECKLINE)
Published August 20, 2010
LATEST US DATA
Conference Board index up 0.1% in July
(WASHINGTON) The index of US leading indicators rose in July for the second time in four months, extending a see-saw pattern that indicates slower growth through the end of the year.
The 0.1 per cent gain in the New York-based Conference Board's gauge of the prospects for the economy in the next three to six months followed a 0.3 per cent decline in June that was larger than initially estimated. The June decrease was the biggest since February 2009.
Manufacturing, which led the economy out of the worst recession since the 1930s, will probably moderate in coming months as a slowdown in consumer spending depresses orders. Federal Reserve policy makers last week said the recovery was 'more modest' than they had projected, prompting them to take additional steps to revive growth.
'This is expected to be a very gradual recovery,' Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates in St Petersburg, Florida, said before the report. 'You're going to need a recovery in the jobs market, and we don't see that picking up anytime soon.'
A separate report showed signs of deterioration in the labour market. First-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased last week to 500,000, the highest level since November, Labor Department figures showed. The figures correspond with the week the Labor Department surveys companies to compile its monthly employment data.
Economists projected a 0.1 per cent rise in the July leading index, according to the median estimate of 59 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a decline of 0.4 per cent to a gain of 0.5 per cent.
Five of the 10 indicators in the leading index contributed to the increase in July, led by the interest rate spread between the overnight federal funds rate and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.
An increase in the factory workweek and longer delivery times also added to the monthly gauge.
Four components retreated, including a drop in consumer expectations and fewer building permits.
The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.2 per cent in July after a 0.1 per cent decline the previous month.
The coincident index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production - the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of US recessions.
The gauge of lagging indicators increased 0.4 per cent last month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, service prices and ratios of labour costs, inventories and consumer credit. -- Bloomberg.
US LEI Increases - (July):
Global Indicators :
Australia Up 0.3%
China Up 0.8% (SSE bottom near 2400 and trending up)
Euro Area Up 0.5% (FTSE/DAX/CAC - bottom and trending up)
France Down 0.3%
Germany Up 0.5%
Japan Down 1.8% (Nikkei225 - bottom in Aug and trending up - stimulus to be announced soon)
Korea No Change 0.0%
Mexico Down 1.4%
Spain Down 0.5%
U.K. Up 0.5%
U.S. Up 0.1% (lagging behind SSE by 3 to 4 months - bear vs bull still struggling at NECKLINE)
Published August 20, 2010
LATEST US DATA
Conference Board index up 0.1% in July
(WASHINGTON) The index of US leading indicators rose in July for the second time in four months, extending a see-saw pattern that indicates slower growth through the end of the year.
The 0.1 per cent gain in the New York-based Conference Board's gauge of the prospects for the economy in the next three to six months followed a 0.3 per cent decline in June that was larger than initially estimated. The June decrease was the biggest since February 2009.
Manufacturing, which led the economy out of the worst recession since the 1930s, will probably moderate in coming months as a slowdown in consumer spending depresses orders. Federal Reserve policy makers last week said the recovery was 'more modest' than they had projected, prompting them to take additional steps to revive growth.
'This is expected to be a very gradual recovery,' Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates in St Petersburg, Florida, said before the report. 'You're going to need a recovery in the jobs market, and we don't see that picking up anytime soon.'
A separate report showed signs of deterioration in the labour market. First-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased last week to 500,000, the highest level since November, Labor Department figures showed. The figures correspond with the week the Labor Department surveys companies to compile its monthly employment data.
Economists projected a 0.1 per cent rise in the July leading index, according to the median estimate of 59 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a decline of 0.4 per cent to a gain of 0.5 per cent.
Five of the 10 indicators in the leading index contributed to the increase in July, led by the interest rate spread between the overnight federal funds rate and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.
An increase in the factory workweek and longer delivery times also added to the monthly gauge.
Four components retreated, including a drop in consumer expectations and fewer building permits.
The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.2 per cent in July after a 0.1 per cent decline the previous month.
The coincident index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production - the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of US recessions.
The gauge of lagging indicators increased 0.4 per cent last month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, service prices and ratios of labour costs, inventories and consumer credit. -- Bloomberg.
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Market Trend - Asia vs SPX
Asia
Asia lead by SSE Composite on positive trend (likely target 2700 to 2800 range in August/early September) and Nikkei225 seems to bottom (trader awaiting Stimulus announcement to boost slow GDP growth - boost market).
US market Trend
Market Sentiment
Market Data ISEE Sentiment Index and other sentiment indicators (Bullish trend up. Neutral trend up. Bearish trend down). ISEE Equity Trend towards bullish. Click and view chart for reference.
CBOE Option
Watch CBOE option August expiration closure this week on the trend. Likely positive trend.
SPX
Bear still fighting to pull index down during half an hour SPX closing.
Fundamental - Watch Copper, CRB and BDI - positive consolidation as observed.
Click the charts on your right hand side. Critical indicators on economy trend. Positive market trend as written on the charts for short term if no major negative headline(s) this week! Trade within your own risk. SPX, if cyclic trend, likely short term low around late September (charts will give the signal).
Asia lead by SSE Composite on positive trend (likely target 2700 to 2800 range in August/early September) and Nikkei225 seems to bottom (trader awaiting Stimulus announcement to boost slow GDP growth - boost market).
US market Trend
Market Sentiment
Market Data ISEE Sentiment Index and other sentiment indicators (Bullish trend up. Neutral trend up. Bearish trend down). ISEE Equity Trend towards bullish. Click and view chart for reference.
CBOE Option
Watch CBOE option August expiration closure this week on the trend. Likely positive trend.
SPX
Bear still fighting to pull index down during half an hour SPX closing.
Need to see volume pick up this week and cross MA200. Refer to previous posting on breaking the resistance 1126 (and hold above 1130) to trigger mid-term bull trend
McCellan Oscillator
Sign of cyclic trend - around 30 to 40 days reference to June and July cycles.
If Yes, TOP end August/early September before trend down.
Fundamental - Watch Copper, CRB and BDI - positive consolidation as observed.
Click the charts on your right hand side. Critical indicators on economy trend. Positive market trend as written on the charts for short term if no major negative headline(s) this week! Trade within your own risk. SPX, if cyclic trend, likely short term low around late September (charts will give the signal).
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Friday, August 13, 2010
SPX Technical Support & Market Trend
Stock Market Trend - Neutral (watch tonight for next week direction).
If "Bear market" rally for short term may last 2/3 weeks (likely end at end of August/early September).
Current market sentiment - negative on low volume sell down.
SPX (S&P 500) Thursday closed at 1083.61 (-5.86). Low 1076.69 and High 1086.72.
Uptrend resistance - 1108 (1st) and 1126 (2nd)
Downtrend if break - 1079 and follow by 1070
Index 38% retracement from 4 week low - 1056.88.
Stocks Above 200 MA weekly chart for reference. Is it near bottom? Watch Cisco (one of the main trigger point this week and also bearish low volume sell down from "poor" economic data released from US, warning from UK and China) and stock above 200 MA will cross below 50.5 or trend up towards or above resistance 53.6. Retracement down ~38% from 4 weeks low (43.94) and 13/52 weeks low (40.3). Do watch stocks 50 MA daily and weekly chart for trend reversal.
Watch Copper market trend after close for direction. A critical indicator.
CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio - show sign of reversal. Need to monitor closely
Asia showing positive sign 1st half of the day. S&P 500 Futures up 5.25 points now.
Listen to Rod Stewart - Sailing and First Cut is the deepest from youtube. A happy weekend.
P/S - I don't and will NEVER short market. Will add Bad Karma!
If "Bear market" rally for short term may last 2/3 weeks (likely end at end of August/early September).
Current market sentiment - negative on low volume sell down.
SPX (S&P 500) Thursday closed at 1083.61 (-5.86). Low 1076.69 and High 1086.72.
Uptrend resistance - 1108 (1st) and 1126 (2nd)
Downtrend if break - 1079 and follow by 1070
Index 38% retracement from 4 week low - 1056.88.
Stocks Above 200 MA weekly chart for reference. Is it near bottom? Watch Cisco (one of the main trigger point this week and also bearish low volume sell down from "poor" economic data released from US, warning from UK and China) and stock above 200 MA will cross below 50.5 or trend up towards or above resistance 53.6. Retracement down ~38% from 4 weeks low (43.94) and 13/52 weeks low (40.3). Do watch stocks 50 MA daily and weekly chart for trend reversal.
CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio - show sign of reversal. Need to monitor closely
Asia showing positive sign 1st half of the day. S&P 500 Futures up 5.25 points now.
Listen to Rod Stewart - Sailing and First Cut is the deepest from youtube. A happy weekend.
P/S - I don't and will NEVER short market. Will add Bad Karma!
Monday, August 9, 2010
SSE August to Early September Target
If no negative impact from Central Bank stress test results (I think should be positive), targetting SSE composite
Minimum 2700
Maximum 2800 (above extra bonus)
Year End near 3400
Watch Live Chart (one minute delay) for reference by clicking interval 2 minutes.
Weekly chart showing SSTO bullish > 50% and MACD crossing over (positive divergence)
Minimum 2700
Maximum 2800 (above extra bonus)
Year End near 3400
Watch Live Chart (one minute delay) for reference by clicking interval 2 minutes.
Weekly chart showing SSTO bullish > 50% and MACD crossing over (positive divergence)
Sunday, August 8, 2010
SPX Deception
SPX deception trading day for shortist. Nice consolidation for next week positive trend.
SSE will lead Asia next week if no major negative influence.
SSE will lead Asia next week if no major negative influence.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Trader Market Trend
CBOE - S&P500 Index Option Volume - 5th August
Call Put
91804 229156
S&P500 Index Option Put to Call Ratio : 2.5 times (plan profit from range bounce on Friday after index surge to 1125.81 at closing hour and the weakness norm before the weekend). S&P500 index range 1118.81 to 1126.56 on Thursday and closed at 1125.81.
Equity option was 0.625 times (reversal of index option) after market closed. Sign of sideline money gradually buy stocks on dip. Let's watch Friday CBOE intra volume for sign of continuation.
Market Trend : Consolidating and testing S&P500 resistance 1130 this week. Likely break 1130 next week and move towards 1145/1150 resistance (likely range bounce for short term and test next uptrend resistance unless surge with high volume). Trader will likely adopt the same strategy next week for daily range bounce PUT Option profit but be prepared for the Unexpected coming soon.
Take a break here till next week.
Call Put
91804 229156
S&P500 Index Option Put to Call Ratio : 2.5 times (plan profit from range bounce on Friday after index surge to 1125.81 at closing hour and the weakness norm before the weekend). S&P500 index range 1118.81 to 1126.56 on Thursday and closed at 1125.81.
Equity option was 0.625 times (reversal of index option) after market closed. Sign of sideline money gradually buy stocks on dip. Let's watch Friday CBOE intra volume for sign of continuation.
Market Trend : Consolidating and testing S&P500 resistance 1130 this week. Likely break 1130 next week and move towards 1145/1150 resistance (likely range bounce for short term and test next uptrend resistance unless surge with high volume). Trader will likely adopt the same strategy next week for daily range bounce PUT Option profit but be prepared for the Unexpected coming soon.
Take a break here till next week.
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Market Trend
Bear pulling back (getting weaker) the bull legs as observed in Asia markets and also S&P500. CBOE put "meat" (Put/Call ratio) getting leaner and VIX trending down. Consolidation week for a likely bull rally in a bear market soon if no major event crops up. Watch copper (COMEX) consolidation closely! Do your own due diligence by interpreting sentiment, fundamental and technical trends before you trade. Watch out for Deception by big boys (fund managers and sideline money awaiting patiently to jump in on DIP).
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Market/Technical Trend
Market/Technical Trend
1. Shanghai SSE Composite Index surge and consolidate this morning.
Refer to MP Trader's chart and Trendlines early forecast resistance of 2700.
2. S&P500 broke 1120 resistance and closed at 1125.86, and trending towards overbought. Professional chartists project 1150 as the next hurdle. Surge will continue to mid week before consolidate/mild correction (watch trend from here). Copper consolidating and Gold mix signals.
3. CBOE Option Future Volume - Put/Call on 2nd August closing - Ratio is around 2:1. "Meat" is here!
View : Neutral near SSE 2700 and S&P500 1150 resistances likely mid/late week.
Fundamental Trend
PMI may hit cyclical bottom for China, US and EU (Germany & UK better than June). May peak at Q4 2010 for both EU and US, and China February 2011. US pondering 2nd stimulus ... Watch US job data (cyclical?) improvement from here if no mishap!
View : Next pull back August/September - use technical indicators to track closely.
US PMI chart for reference. Details refer to economic calendar.
Market Headlines
Last week positive trend but early this week conflicting signals.
Above information are for sharing only. Do your own homework.
1. Shanghai SSE Composite Index surge and consolidate this morning.
Refer to MP Trader's chart and Trendlines early forecast resistance of 2700.
2. S&P500 broke 1120 resistance and closed at 1125.86, and trending towards overbought. Professional chartists project 1150 as the next hurdle. Surge will continue to mid week before consolidate/mild correction (watch trend from here). Copper consolidating and Gold mix signals.
3. CBOE Option Future Volume - Put/Call on 2nd August closing - Ratio is around 2:1. "Meat" is here!
View : Neutral near SSE 2700 and S&P500 1150 resistances likely mid/late week.
Fundamental Trend
PMI may hit cyclical bottom for China, US and EU (Germany & UK better than June). May peak at Q4 2010 for both EU and US, and China February 2011. US pondering 2nd stimulus ... Watch US job data (cyclical?) improvement from here if no mishap!
View : Next pull back August/September - use technical indicators to track closely.
US PMI chart for reference. Details refer to economic calendar.
Market Headlines
Last week positive trend but early this week conflicting signals.
Above information are for sharing only. Do your own homework.
Sunday, August 1, 2010
China July PMI - Actual 51.2 vs. Forecast 51.4
Dropped due to property cooling exercise. China government recently announced over 8 Trillion yuan investment to beef up infrastructure (to support gas energy development) at western China (4 Trillion yuan) and also high-speed rail (120 billion US$) projects. More projects such as public housing, etc., may add on to offset the property cool down, etc.
Watch the Shanghai Composite Index when Asia market opens on Monday. Refer to previous post on SSE > 2600 resistance. Personal view : Positive (PMI may bottom here) and more news from late 2nd week of August 2010 onwards; CPI.....
Watch commodities such as Copper, Steel, Aluminium... increase in prices/demand but Gold may correct down in short term.
Another positive sign also for shipping/rail - Transport sector.
Is Dow Jones Transport rising? Yes
Is Freight Container Rate moving up? Yes
Nevertheless, trade cautiously and watch S&P500 closely early next week whether it can break 1120 (with volume) resistance (charting from chartists/gurus) and surge above .... Fundamental is positive (Asia, Europe, South Ameria, Africa, Middle-East) except Worried about US Growth Slow Down. More positive market headlines recently....
Watch the Shanghai Composite Index when Asia market opens on Monday. Refer to previous post on SSE > 2600 resistance. Personal view : Positive (PMI may bottom here) and more news from late 2nd week of August 2010 onwards; CPI.....
Watch commodities such as Copper, Steel, Aluminium... increase in prices/demand but Gold may correct down in short term.
Another positive sign also for shipping/rail - Transport sector.
Is Dow Jones Transport rising? Yes
Is Freight Container Rate moving up? Yes
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