Trader's Stock Market Trend

Trader stock market trend (bull or bear) is set by stock market trader's sentiment, fundamental (economy) and technical (TA) analyses. Trader's stock Market Trend Headlines also affect the market sentiment to invest or sell stock!

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Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Fundamental Trend - July PMI

From WSJ Blog on World-wide factory activity by country

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Gold Top down analysis.
8 years ago
MP's Mid-Day Minute by Mike Paulenoff

Natural Gas at Crossroads Technically Near Term...
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TA of Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold & Silver

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
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Slope Of Hope with Tim Knight

Trader Stock Market Trend - Information

What is Trader’s Stock Market Trend?
A stock market trend is a financial equity market to move in a particular stock market trend or market direction over a certain time frame. The trader’s stock market trends are classified as secular stock market trends for long term, primary stock market trends for medium term and secondary stock market trends for short term (cyclic).

Stock Market Traders identify market trends using technical analysis. Technical analysis will help to characterise stock market trends to buy or to sell for each time frame.

Stock market trend is either a bull or bear market! The traders will seek capital gains in either market trend. The bull stock market trend and bear stock market trend describe upward and downward market trends. Traders make profits from both bull and bear markets.

Bull market - A bull stock market is due to traders’ positive sentiment confidence, and increased stock trading investing to reap future stock price increases. A bullish market trend in the stock market like April 2009 (March 2009 formed the bottom market trend) begins before the US and world economies show signs of recovery. The early birds stock market traders) reap the highest capital gains!

Bear market - A bear market is due to traders’ negative sentiment confidence, and decline in the stock market trend. Stock market traders or investors optimism to fear cause the major market trend reversal. A bear market overall stock market indices will dip more than 20% (rule of thumb). The stock market trend declines over 3 months or longer.

Trader’s Stock Market Trend is as follows:
1. Secular market trend (long term)
A secular market trend is a long-term market trend that lasts 7 years (Joseph Cycle) and above. The secular market trend consists of a series of sequential primary stock market trends.

A secular bear stock market consists of smaller bull stock markets and larger bear stock markets; a secular bull market consists of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets. In a secular bull market the prevailing stock market trend is "bullish”.

2. Primary market trend (intermediate term)
A primary stock market trend has broad stock market sectors support throughout the stock market trend for a year or longer.

3. Secondary market trend (short term)
Secondary stock market trends are short-term changes in stock price direction within a primary market trend. The market trend duration is a few weeks (30 to 45 days) or a few months before market trend reversal switch over.

Secondary stock market trend is called a market trend correction. A stock market correction is a short term price decline of 5% to 15%. A stock market trend correction is a downward movement that is not large enough to be a bear market.

Secondary stock market trend is also called a bear market rally. Stock Market indices increase of 10% to 15%. A bear market rally is an upward movement that is not large enough to be a bull market . Bear market rallies occurred in the Dow Jones index after the October 2008 stock market crash. The Nikkei 225 has a number of bear market rallies since late 1980s.

Stock Market Trend Opportunity - Identifying Market Trend Reversal
Market trends consist of stock market trend “Top” and stock market trend “Bottom”.

1. The Stock Market Trend Top
A stock market trend top (or stock market higher high) with stock market overbought and showing sign of negative distribution divergence with higher volume than the preceding session. High volume selling or extreme high option to pull ratio in the stock market over consecutive days is sign of major negative divergence.

2. The Stock Market Trend Bottom
A stock market trend bottom is a positive market trend reversal in the making at, the end of a negative market trend. Generally, the start of an upward stock market trend (bear market rally or bull market). Traders or investors will ramp up the stock market volume. Market Trend bottom may also be short-lived and prices might resume their decline after each cyclic upward market trend (30 to 45 days). Traders and investors may be trapped in the “BEAR Rally” or "false" stock market bottom.

Trader’s Stock Market Sentiment
Other than fundamental and technical analyses, stock traders also seek the pulse of the stock market sentiment index or indicator. Investor market sentiment is a contrarian or stock market trend indicator. The stock market market investors and traders may trade on short term (secondary market trend) based on sentimental trend. Hedge Fund may capitalise on traders or investors sentiment trend to reap the maximum gain through stock market trend deception tactic!

Generally, the retail investors or day traders follow a buy low, sell high stock market strategy. Smart Stock market Traders will buy when everyone is selling, and, sell when retail investors or day traders are buying. Use stock market sentiment with caution and don’t simply follow the market herd!

A bearish (negative) stock market sentiment signals that a market bottom has almost been formed. Day traders will buy call options or stocks to reap the capital gains from stock market trend upside. A bullish (positive) stock market sentiment signals that the stock market top has almost been formed. Day traders will buy short options or short sell stocks (CFD) to reap the stock market trend sell down.

Stock Market sentiment normally affected during CBOE option monthly and quarterly closing calendar. Retail investors and day traders beware of the Big Traders’ deception! American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) sentiment indicator provides weekly update on the investor’s stock market sentiment. Other stock market sentiment indicators the CBOE Put/Call ratio.

Stock Market Trend – Capitulation
Trader’s Stock Market trend capitulation refers to the threshold reached after a severe fall in the market. Majority of the retail investors and day traders will trigger panic stock market selling to cut loss. Contra day market traders will incur heavy financial losses. Think twice if you love to play contra with no holding power!

The retail investors, day traders and even big traders (program selling) then capitulate once the pre-set sell stop thresholds have been triggered. Chaos due to stock market capitulation will be created. The high volume stock market selling capitulation will lead to a stock market trend bottom.

Stock Market Trader’s Emotions
Manage your trading Emotions in stock market trading. Your positive emotion is the key success factor. Negative emotions are retail investors or day traders capital loss #1 killer!

Disclaimer

The shared information on Trader Stock Market Trend blog are for reference or discussion only. It should not be construed as investment advice. Any investment decision is not the responsibility and liability of the authors.

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