My observations for reference. Read charts for market trend signals
US LEI Increases - (July):
Global Indicators :
Australia Up 0.3%
China Up 0.8% (SSE bottom near 2400 and trending up)
Euro Area Up 0.5% (FTSE/DAX/CAC - bottom and trending up)
France Down 0.3%
Germany Up 0.5%
Japan Down 1.8% (Nikkei225 - bottom in Aug and trending up - stimulus to be announced soon)
Korea No Change 0.0%
Mexico Down 1.4%
Spain Down 0.5%
U.K. Up 0.5%
U.S. Up 0.1% (lagging behind SSE by 3 to 4 months - bear vs bull still struggling at NECKLINE)
Published August 20, 2010
LATEST US DATA
Conference Board index up 0.1% in July
(WASHINGTON) The index of US leading indicators rose in July for the second time in four months, extending a see-saw pattern that indicates slower growth through the end of the year.
The 0.1 per cent gain in the New York-based Conference Board's gauge of the prospects for the economy in the next three to six months followed a 0.3 per cent decline in June that was larger than initially estimated. The June decrease was the biggest since February 2009.
Manufacturing, which led the economy out of the worst recession since the 1930s, will probably moderate in coming months as a slowdown in consumer spending depresses orders. Federal Reserve policy makers last week said the recovery was 'more modest' than they had projected, prompting them to take additional steps to revive growth.
'This is expected to be a very gradual recovery,' Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates in St Petersburg, Florida, said before the report. 'You're going to need a recovery in the jobs market, and we don't see that picking up anytime soon.'
A separate report showed signs of deterioration in the labour market. First-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased last week to 500,000, the highest level since November, Labor Department figures showed. The figures correspond with the week the Labor Department surveys companies to compile its monthly employment data.
Economists projected a 0.1 per cent rise in the July leading index, according to the median estimate of 59 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a decline of 0.4 per cent to a gain of 0.5 per cent.
Five of the 10 indicators in the leading index contributed to the increase in July, led by the interest rate spread between the overnight federal funds rate and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.
An increase in the factory workweek and longer delivery times also added to the monthly gauge.
Four components retreated, including a drop in consumer expectations and fewer building permits.
The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, rose 0.2 per cent in July after a 0.1 per cent decline the previous month.
The coincident index tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production - the measures used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to determine the beginning and end of US recessions.
The gauge of lagging indicators increased 0.4 per cent last month. The index measures business lending, length of unemployment, service prices and ratios of labour costs, inventories and consumer credit. -- Bloomberg.
No comments:
Post a Comment