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Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Bear Market Rally (Likely Mild Correction)

Stock Markets' Indicators (Estimation)====================================================
S&P500 / SPX
SPX Index 1140.68 to 1162.76, closed up at 1160.75 on low volume
Market (RSI) near overbought. Daily SPX chart RSI may cross below 50 marks before rebound again!
Today likely range bound between 1150 to 1170. Strong market trendline support at 1132.
Short term market trend top 1170 to 1180 (higher volume near 1200)
Year end - Near 1250 and may cross 1300, likely the stock market trend top (market trend indicator)

BDI (Baltic Dry Index)
Stock market traders will be watching closely this sector stock market trend!
Daily chart, cross 50MA trendline resistance 2500.9 and closed at 2569. Downside risk minimal
1st resistance 2653 (20MA)
2nd resistance 2887 (200MA)
RSI > 50, shipping related stocks will be bullish.
RSI > 70, likely the stock market trend top for this sector (indicator)



Copper
Copper trending up and will consolidate again. Higher high and higher low.
Near 400 (likelihood new higher high next few months), likely the stock market trend top (copper indicator).

STI
Bear market bullish rally for the past few days. STI index touched 3197.34 higher high this morning.
Daily higher high on laggard blue chips. Buy on dip on marine related blue chip stocks (Sembawang Marine, Keppel Corp and NOL).
STI index (RSI overbought) will likely consolidate around 3140 to 3163 range. Watch BDI and Copper!
Stocks in this sector will trend up higher high from mid October onwards.
Short Term bear market bullish market trend 1st resistance 3100 3163 (strong resistance). 2nd resistance  at 3200 psychological resistance. Note : correct the 1st resistance error from 3100 to 3163 (my apology)
Year end Near 3250/3300, likely the stock market trend top (indicator)


SSE
Stock Market upward trend affected by government cramping down on property! But trend up 44.98 pts and closed at 2655.66 last Friday. If no further property curbing, SSE will trade upward after golden week holidays.
Short term market trend will re-cross 2700 and above.
Near 3150 (November/December 2010), likely the stock market trend top (indicator) for this year.
Near 3378/3429 (February/March 2011), likely end of primary bear market stock upward trend.

Note : No major negative event/reversal, stock markets will trade higher high and higher low.

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